BoW: Back dutching with limited risk
Posted in Betfair bot for this week, algorithm and strategy by mapper
Stefan,
I have tip for new bot of this week. I want to ask you for TOLS bot.
Bot will be dutch 3 favorities by backing for stake or required profit (fot this point it's the same as we can setup via bot executor). I want to have condition with parameter to setup maximum loss. For example maximum loss for other horses (except 3 favorities) is 3 * expected profit on favorite horses.
So bot will place bets only when market offers this situation. It can be great as combination with marginale strategy you offer here. Or do you think that simple money managment (stop only in required profit by day with constant required profit) is better?
example:
required profit 2 and accept max 3*profit = 6 loss
horse 1 - back 2.6 *2.4 = 2 profit
horse 2 - 6.6 * 0.94 = 2 profit
horse 3 - 7.0 * 0.89 = 2 profit
horse 4 - 4.23 loss
horse 5 - 4.23 loss
....
Thursday, October 01, 2009
Hi Martin, it took me more time as I was busy working on some bespoke solutions, but here it is at last. You can download the source code of this betfair bot.
Yesterday I finished testing of the betting strategy on horse racing favorite using the progressive staking plan with real money, so I hope your dutching will run well.
Thursday, October 01, 2009
exellent software
Friday, October 02, 2009
Hi Stefan,
Thank you for creating this bot and thinking for this request during your another work! I really appreciate it. I have testing another bot but I will test this bot by next week. Thank you very much! Your support is excellent.
Friday, October 02, 2009
First results
I have the bot up & running OK. Have completed 9 Martingales from only 12 bets.It will be interesting to see if this encouraging start can be maintained.
Sunday, October 04, 2009
Eric: That's great. I am start testing from today. Do you restart bot manually (when required profit is reached) or do you change source code? if yes, could you please provide this changed code? Thank you!
Sunday, October 04, 2009
Betfair bot source code
When LookUpBot evaluates a market the method GetCanRunThisSolution is called returning true if bot is allowed to run this betting strategy, and false otherwise.
After the required profit (in this case any profit) is reached you can reset previous result and return true as you want to continue with further betting. Well it changes this strategy dramatical as you wanted to stop reaching required profit per session/day, but you can test anything.
private bool GetCanRunThisSolution(out bool stopBetting) { stopBetting = false; if (mySolutionMarkets.ReadyForNextBet) { double profit = Math.Round(mySolutionMarkets.CurrentBettingBalance, 0); //if (profit >= RequiredProfit) if (profit > 0) { AddMessage(string.Format("Required profit has been reached: {0:N2}", profit)); mySolutionMarkets.Reset(); //stopBetting = true; return true; } else { AddMessage(string.Format("Current profit: {0:N2}", profit)); return true; } } return false; }Tuesday, October 06, 2009
warning
Stefan, Thank you!
Tuesday, October 06, 2009
Martin, you must keep in mind the profitability of your dutching strategy is based on pure luck of winning your dutching selections. The question is, are those really 3 favorites with the best chance to win a race? Therefore your strategy can use this luck and stop at profit hoping not to hit too much losing races in the row.
Wednesday, October 07, 2009
Stefan, I know you want to describe :) I have very good results with this new strategy. I want only to show for other how it can be risky. There is 80-95% cycles closed in one or two races. But then can be one bad cycle which needs huge capital. So as Eric said it's better to set profit as 1 or 2 % from balance. Yesterday, was great day for this strategy. All my tested cycles was closed at first or second race :) Thank you for this strategy :)
Thursday, October 08, 2009
example you need 200 EUR per 1 EUR profit